Deep League starting pitchers (Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard and Quintana)
I am looking at newbies going later than pick 300 in the latest ADP NFBC. Here are the previous editions:
- Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco and Gore
- Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill and Steele
- Walker, Perez, Manaea and Bello
- Megill, Stripling, Jameson and Civale
- Whitlock, Houck, Gray and Maeda
David Peterson (364 ADP)
The 27-year-old southpaw has a ton going for him. A 94 mph fastball. His ERA and ERA estimators were all below 4.00 last season. He had a 10.7 K/9 which was 14th best among all starters with at least 100 IP. He mixed up his pitches, throwing four of them more than 12% of the time. His slider is his limit elite with a 25% SwStr%. He gets a ton of drops on his pitches and had a 49% GB% leading to a 0.9 HR/9.
The only thing stopping it from being one of the elite weapons in the game is a lack of control.
Of the same 140 starters with 100 IP, his walk rate was the ninth highest. It’s way above my Limit of 3.5 BB/9 I like to put with pitchers.
There are no signs of improvement. A 3.5 BB/9 in AAA last year. It was 4.1 BB/9 in the second half and 4.5 BB/9 in September.
At this ADP, I think it’s worth taking a chance on him to see if he can cut that walk rate in half. If he is able and keeps everything else, he jumps to the Corbin Burnes/Brandon Woodruff range of talents. Nice upside down choice.
steven matz (366 ADP)
He took a step forward by following the simple rule of throwing his bad pitches, fastball (52% to 48%0 and slider (8% to 2%), less times, and his good pitches, change (23% to 29%) and curved (17% to 20%), plus.
I expect the K%-BB% down since he posted a 19% K%-BB% in 3-2 with the league average at -3%. Still, I find his projections of 8.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 Steamer reasonable.
With a decent base, its fantasy value is removed for two reasons.
First, he had an ERA of 5.25 with his ERA estimators in the middle of 3.00. I don’t care about his ERA at all because it’s the least repeatable throwing skill. Hopefully this continues to remove its cost.
The biggest problem for him last season was his health which limited him to 48 IP. In May, he spent more than a month at IL for a shoulder injury. In July, he left IL, made a start and returned to IL with a torn ligament in his knee. He returned in mid-September and made five relief appearances.
He did the same on his return. In a combined AAA IP of 14, he posted an ERA of 1.84, 11.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. In those five appearances, his fastball speed increased slightly and he used the same pitch mix.
I’m all for it at this price and would blast him if he went to spring training and had no limits.
Noah Syndergaard (368 ADP)
There’s nothing left of the majestic Thor and while he doesn’t stare at it, his production is closer to Fat Thor.
His average fastball speed dropped from a high of 98.3 mph to just 93.8 mph last season. Its K%-BB% is down to 11%, comparable to Adam Wainwright, Jordan Lylesand Cal Quantrill. He didn’t just throw a few innings to get to this sad state, but he actually threw 134 IPs with 24 starts. He’s just a shell of himself.
And digging deep, every metric points down. His K%-BB% went from 12% to 10% from the first to the second half. His speed continued to drop:
And of all his pitches, his change (14% SwStr%, 45% GB%) is his best pitch.
I would draft Jordan Lyles before Syndergaard and Lyles gets drafted 200 picks later.
Jose Quintana (369 ADP)
The 33-year-old southpaw started throwing shots again and had a decent season (2.93 ERA, 3.72 xFIP, 7.4 K/9s and 1.21 WHIP). His strikeout rate was not elite, but in making 32 starts he had the 64th-highest total (137). It’s not a game-changer, but it’s good for the fifth starter of a fantastic team.
He was able to continue focusing only on his best shots, which meant less fastballs and more curves and changes.
Jose Quintana pitch mix
|Ground||Use 2021||Use 2022||SwStr%||GB %|
Boring but useful profile.