MLB odds: 2022 World Series odds for every playoff team, bets ranked worst to first
By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB betting analyst
We’re approaching the home stretch for your instruction, so now it’s time to start thinking about your final exam. Some call it the World Series, but here it’s the culmination of everything you learned to end up with an A+ bankroll.
I wanted to take a look at the 12 MLB ball clubs that will make the playoffs and then use the data to predict the winner. I ran a model using Statcast data to determine each team’s probability of winning this year’s World Championship (the same data we discussed from our first class together). So let’s dive in and look at the results.
Here are the odds for each team in the playoffs and my ranking for which team will win it all, from worst to best (*odds via FOX Bet):
12. Cleveland Guardians (+2500 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
Why does Cleveland have the best chance of winning everything among division winners? The way they won games is drastically different from everyone else.
As a team, the Guardians have hit the fewest home runs among playoff teams (127) and have the lowest hit rate in the majors (33.1%). But hitters like Andrés Giménez and Steven Kwan hit more for average (batting around .300) and have the most stolen third bases with 119. The bullpen also deserves credit with an expected free throw of 3.49 , the second-best in MLB.
As the youngest and healthiest team in the playoffs, picking them would be zagging when almost everyone zigzags.
11. Philadelphia Phillies (+3000 to win the World Series)
Because we praise the judge for an AL record, we might as well honor the National League home run champion. That honor belongs to Kyle Schwarber with his 46 outbursts.
JT Realmuto also contributed with his .341 OBP, but what really sets him apart is his work behind the plate. His pop time, or how quickly he can throw second to take out a base thief, has always been the best in MLB. That part of Philadelphia’s defense has never been a problem, but the rest of the team has the second-worst over-average strikeout at -37.
However, if Aaron Nola and the rest of his pitching team can throw crazy numbers at bat, it might not matter.
ten. San Diego Padres (1%, +2500 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
Winners of the Juan Soto contest still believe in their superstar, even though he didn’t get the start they wanted. As of August 3, Soto still has his absurdly high walk rate and OBP (19.6% and 0.393) but only six home runs and 16 RBIs. However, Manny Machado’s 7.3 fWAR ranks second in baseball, and he kind of has maintained his .336 batting average on live balls.
What carried the Padres has always been their pitching. Blake Snell averages more than a dozen strikeouts per nine inningsYu Darvish doesn’t walk too many batters and Joe Musgrove has the lowest ERA in the field (2.93).
The ceiling for the Padres is quite high, it’s just a question of whether they can reach it.
9. Seattle Mariners (1%, +2500 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
Ending the longest active playoff drought in North American sports is one thing. Rejecting two of the most dangerous batting orders just to make the ALCS is quite another.
Seattle will look to counter with prodigy Julio Rodriguez in the lead with a top 25 ISO (.220) and Eugenio Suarez’s 31 homers. The M’s also made a $108 million investment in SP Luis Castillo, who can consistently throw a fastball at 97 mph but has a low strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.53).
There is overall talent, but no skill can overwhelm the rest of MLB.
8. Tampa Bay Stingrays (2%, +1700 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
Injuries have plagued the Rays. Gone are the impact players like OF Kevin Kiermaier, C Mike Zunino, 2B Brandon Lowe and P Ryan Yarbrough. While the rest of the ball club were more than able to fight their way past Game 162, there are questions about their attacking power. The Rays’ average launch angle of 11.3° ranks 24th among the majors, leading to one of the lowest barrel rates and expected wOBA ratings in MLB.
While defense and throwing have always been the hallmarks of their playoff run — including this year — the missing pop will be hard to produce.
seven. Toronto Blue Jays (5%, +1400 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
Perhaps the most feared power hitter among the bigs would have to be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto shortstop Bo Bichette with 250. Even Teoscar Hernandez has the longest average home run at 410 feet. Enough Blue Jays hitters can jump on pitching errors to make Toronto intriguing.
However, when it comes to fabricating offense in other ways, they struggled. Their -11.1 BsR ranks fourth among the majors.
The strength is there, but this team has a lot of work to do.
6. Cardinals of St. Louis (6%, +1400 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
Arguably, the top two MVP candidates in the NL both play for the Redbirds. Classification 1B Paul Goldschmidt fifth in MLB in solid contact rate (10%) to go along with his .317 batting average and .404 OBP. 3B Nolan Arenado has the seventh-lowest strikeout rate among skilled hitters (11.5%) and seventh-best wRC+ (151) when making good contact.
Even so, the pitching staff is likely to leave a lot of balls in play. Their 7.39 K/9 mark is the worst in baseball. The swansongs for Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina will be major narratives in St. Louis, but it’s pitching depth that should be analyzed as to the Cardinals’ real chances this month.
5. New York food (seven%, +850 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
Succumbing to recency bias can be tempting after the Mets let their division lead slip away in the final hours of the season. And playing an extra series should always be viewed as a negative, especially when New York’s top two pitchers, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, suffered injuries in 2022.
Still, if they’re at their best, no pitching staff has a better xFIP (3.46), and no team has a closer better than Edwin Diaz (17.1 strikeouts per 9 innings). ). Add to the clubhouse Pete Alonso with his 40 homers (third), and you have a serious competitor among those of the Wild Cards.
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4. Houston Astros (14%, +350 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
It’s a new postseason, but the same story in Houston: hitting the depth.
It starts with DH/OF Yordan Alvarez (.405 OBP and 37 circuits), who would have been a strong MVP contender if Judge and Ohtani hadn’t had galactic seasons. 2B Jose Altuve leads the Astros in fWAR (6.6)but Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker aren’t far behind.
As far as pitching goes, SP Justin Verlander hasn’t given up a home run since July and is likely on his way to winning the Cy Young. The bullpen has the best xFIP in the majors (3.47).
If playoff experience matters, Houston has a ton. They’re AL favorites for good reason.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (17%, +275 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
Is it possible the Dodgers are even better than their garish record suggests? Pythagorean Record converts a team’s runs scored and runs allowed into the record it “should” have for the season. As great as the Dodgers are, they’re actually even better at about five wins! And yet, their path to the World Series is much more difficult as they could face the Braves and the Mets.
Yet Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner & Co. have all contributed at least 150 hits each! Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw all had running averages of 2.30 or higher. They hit well, throw well and defend well. There aren’t too many seasons where a favorite has so much going for it.
2. Atlanta Braves (22%, +500 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
For the last time this season, I am promoting the “Bet on the BravesJune article. This year’s edition now has OF Ronald Acuña, Jr., who ranks in the top 15 for hard hit rate (49.9%). He leads a batting order that is number one per barrel (10.9%). They also have P Spencer Strider, who has one of the most effective four-seam fastballs in MLB. He is part of a pitching team that is second in xFIP (3.56).
But one more reason they’re in great shape to repeat as world champions involves baserunning. Baseball-Reference has a metric called the “Extra Base Taken Rate” which measures how often baserunners take second base on a typical single and third base on a typical double. The Braves are number one with an additional 50% base capture rate.
It’s the little things that make the Braves such a big threat to repeat.
1. New York Yankees (25%, +500 to win the World Series on FOX Bet)
Let’s take Aaron Judge’s attention away for a moment (the horror!). As a team, their .331 xwOBA is the best in baseball thanks to contributions from other hitters like DH Giancarlo Stanton (11.3 barrels per plate appearance), 1B Anthony Rizzo (32 home runs) and 2B Gleyber Torres (7.5 barrels per plate appearance).
Pitching has also reached milestones of its own, such as SP Gerrit Cole breaking the Yankees’ all-time batting mark in a season. But will they have enough throwing depth and consistent power, while potentially lacking home-court advantage in the final rounds of the playoffs? It’s the only thing stopping this team from making a deep run in the playoffs.
So this is it! These are your notes. Study them well, use them and build from here. Your grade – and your wallet – depend on it.
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, sports betting analyst, data scientist, and adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions led him to become a cold brew enthusiast. Edward previously worked in local television, including at Fox’s Dallas affiliate covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Jwitter @EdWithSports.
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