Ranking Fantasy Baseball Pitchers, Lineup Tips For Sunday’s MLB Games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, daily batter upgrades and demotions to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy tips are geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

To note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitch changes or weather-related game postponements, as well as adding the latest MLB game odds at the stated posting time.

What you need to know for Sunday’s MLB games

By Todd Zola

  • If you need to make up some pitching points, don’t worry because Sunday’s slate is full of options. But first, here’s your weekly reminder to set the lineups early with the case starting early with the 11:35 a.m. ET tilt between the visiting San Francisco Giants and host Cincinnati Reds in the Great American. ball park. You wouldn’t know it by his 6.25 ERA, but Alex Cobb is destined for a turnaround as indicated by a 2.37 xFIP and 2.56 SIERA. Cobb (27% registered in ESPN leagues) is drawing a Reds lineup that has been hitting better lately, but they still sport the ninth-lowest wOBA with a right-hander on the hill. Cobb’s Cobb’s 21.3% K-BB% ranks 24th among pitchers with at least 30 innings.

  • If you want to stream Nick Pivetta (46%), you better hurry, because his roster will undoubtedly skyrocket once everyone starts busying himself with his Sunday lineup. Not only is Pivetta backed by the rejuvenated Boston Red Sox roster, but he will face a Baltimore Orioles club with the seventh-lowest wOBA against right-handers. Pivetta is off to a quality start in four straight efforts, posting a 1.61 ERA and 0.64 WHIP with 25 punches in those 28 frames.

  • There are three other main targets for a productive start. James Kaprielian (4%) takes the hill at home for the Oakland Athletics against a Texas Rangers roster totaling the fourth-poorest wOBA against right-handers.

  • The pitcher for the visitors will be Dane Dunning (10%) who is also well positioned to face a unit with the lowest wOBA in the league against right-handers.

  • Trusting Kyle Freeland (5%) could be a challenge after fellow Colorado Rockies left-hander Austin Gomber was lit up by the Washington Nationals on Saturday, but for the season the Nationals are still the 10th most weak with a rubber southpaw.

  • In a surprise move, the Atlanta Braves opted for Travis Demeritte and promoted top prospect Michael Harris II. He made his major league debut on Saturday, playing center field. Harris II won’t play every day, but Demeritte played frequently, so his playing time will be split between Harris II and William Contreras (18%). Even so, both deserve a place in the daily league list. Contreras is catcher-eligible and has seven homers in just 58 plate appearances. Atlanta used Contreras on the left and as a designated hitter, but of course you can click him at receiver. Harris II has some pop, but his basic stolen ability is his main draw. The 21-year-old speedster posted a .305/.372/.506 line with 11 interceptions in 196 plate appearances for Double-A Mississippi before getting the call.


It’s not too late to start another one free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring new points the following Monday.


Ranking of starting pitchers for Sunday


Top Under-50 Percent Listed Hitters for Sunday

The best and worst hitters of the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, taking into account a variety of factors, including talent players, ballparks, relievers, weather, umpires, defense, receiver framing and more.

  • Tommy La Stella (SF, 2B — 2%) at Tyler Mahle

  • Mike Moustakas (CIN, 3G — 11%) against Alex Cobb

  • Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 50%) at Elvin Rodriguez

  • Tyler Naquin (CIN, CF — 13%) against Alex Cobb

  • Christian Walker (ARI, 1B — 25%) against Tyler Anderson

  • Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 33%) at Miles Mikolas

  • Darin Ruf (SF, 1B — 9%) at Tyler Mahle

  • Josh Rojas (ARI, SS – 26%) against Tyler Anderson

  • Alejandro Kirk (TOR, C — 16%) at Patrick Sandoval

  • Evan Longoria (SF, 3G — 1%) to Tyler Mahle

Worst hitters over 50% for Sunday

  • Joey Gallo (NYY, LF — 56%) to Shane McClanahan

  • Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 62%) against Zack Wheeler

  • Mark Canha (NYM, LF – 63%) against Zack Wheeler

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2G — 96%) at Max Fried

  • Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 52%) at James Kaprielian

  • Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 72%) vs. Dane Dunning

  • JT Realmuto (PHI, C — 99%) at Chris Bassitt

  • Randy Arozarena (TB, LF – 89%) against Luis Severino

  • Adam Frazier (SEA, 2B — 64%) against Luis Garcia

  • Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 89%) against Alex Cobb

Accessory of the day

Zack Wheeler Strikeouts Prop is currently above/below 6.5 (+115/-155).

PREDICTION

THE BAT sees Wheeler putting up 5.0 Strikeouts for this match on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 27.1% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value to the BELOW with an expected value of $30.78.

To note: Expected value is a measure of the quality of a bet, taking into account the likelihood of it winning against the odds provided by the book. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an expected value of $25, you would win some and lose some, but in the end you would expect to walk away with $25 profit on your $100 investment.

MOST ENABLING FACTORS:

  • THE BAT projects Zack Wheeler in the 91st percentile when estimating his punching ability.

  • Citi Field ranks 5th in Major League Baseball in strikeouts, according to THE BAT projection system.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

  • The New York Mets (19.5,000%, via THE BAT X) plan to have the lightest roster today.

  • The New York Mets have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will have the hand advantage over Zack Wheeler today.

  • Zack Wheeler’s fastball speed is down 1.1 mph this season (95.3 mph) below what it was last season (96.4 mph).

  • Zack Wheeler has been lucky with his strikeouts this year, posting a 10.12 K/9 despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level at 9.79 – a difference of 0.33 K/9.

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