Week 7 College Football Player Props Primer
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Braydon Johnson Oklahoma State at TCU – Under 62.5 receiving yards (FD)
Johnson had gotten starting reps through Oklahoma State’s first four games of the season, recording 17 catches on 31 targets for 360 yards, 21.2 ypc and three touchdowns. However, last week against Texas Tech, Johnson only saw 14 snaps (per PFF), receiving no targets after suffering a concussion last week. In his absence, Jaden Bray finally returned and played a full streak of snaps while Bryson Green put in a stellar performance catching 5 of 9 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. With OSU now fielding three outside wide receivers for two spots, and Johnson questionable after injury, it’s entirely possible we’ll see Johnson’s snaps cut, meaning he’ll have to rely on a long gain instead. only on volume in order to reach that mark, which increases the degree of difficulty on the road against a TCU team that has the second best point offense in the nation and plays at the 86th slowest pace. I think the horned frogs are trying to control the clock and slow the game down a bit. It will be interesting to see how playing time evolves in the wide receivers body, but regardless of what I think Johnson is going to see a decrease in playing time.
Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami at Virginia Tech – Over 232.5 Passing Yards – (FD) (Scale – 275+ = +250)
At the start of the season, Van Dyke had major hype about the NFL Draft alongside Anthony Richardson, Devin Leary and Jaren Hall, all of whom are vying to be considered the 2023 QB4. However, with the arrival of a more conservative play caller in HC Mario Cristobal combined with a depleted WR body, Miami experienced a slower transition than the Hurricanes faithful would like to see. However, things came together last week against UNC’s porous defense as Van Dyke completed 42 of 57 passes for 496 yards, 8.7 YPA and a 3-to-1 ratio. Virginia Tech leads a streak of three straight losses where they’ve allowed 45, 41 and 33 points and are averaging 134 fewer yards per game than the U so far (467 to 333). With VT’s freshman year, HC Brent Pry still pulls things together in terms of personnel and Miami is averaging 315 passing yards per game while proving he can move the ball, but doesn’t score as effectively in the red zone as you would like to see. Luckily all we’re looking at in this bet is yardage, and at 232.5 passing yards I think Van Dyke is more than capable of clearing that reasonable number and is an intriguing Ladder Play at + 250 if he throws for more than 275 yards.
Charlie Jones, WR, Purdue vs. Nebraska – Under 99.5 receiving yards (DK)
Jones was an early feel-good story for the Boilermakers, as the transfer from Iowa sizzled with three straight games for 130+ yards while receiving an absurd 42 targets during that stretch. However, since then his effectiveness has waned, with Jones posting totals of 59, 55 and 15 yards last week against Maryland where he caught 3 of 7 targets, the two lowest of the season. Beat reporters reported that Jones sometimes trained sparingly due to an unspecified lingering injury he was going through. With Jones’ usage rate and yardage total down three weeks, but that yardage total posted at a peak 99.5 receiving yards against a Nebraska team that Purdue should be able to beat before turn the page on a showdown with @Wisconsin next week. It’s possible that Jones will hit a home run, but he hasn’t in three weeks and that line is too high given that wide receivers have higher variance than running backs or QBs.
Jahmyr Gibbs RB, Alabama at Tennessee – Over 81.5 rushing yards (DK)
Tide OC Bill O’Brien was clearly holding back with the hasty use of Gibbs through the first four games, with the GT transfer receiving 9, 9, 4 and 3 carries while being moved around the formation like an all-around weapon. That all changed against Arkansas when Gibbs received 18 carries for 206 yards, 6.1 yards after contact (!), 11.4 YPC and two touchdowns. He followed the career-high performance by recording 21 bins for 154 yards and 7.3 ypc against a formidable Texas A&M defense last week with Bryce Young out, as Alabama rushed for 388 yards on the Aggies. For its part, Tennessee has the 30th-leading defense overall, allowing just 2.8 YPC and 89 rushing yards per game. Whether or not Bryce Young is able to adapt remains highly uncertain, although I still expect Gibbs to get enough volume to rush for 81.5 yards. I expect the 81.5 rushing line to move soon after this article is published as I see it at 97.5 rushing yards elsewhere making 81.5 the DK of the outlier. If you’re a Tennessee fan and intend to make Gibbs disappear, just be sure to buy him so you get the best deal available. I bet Over 81.5 on Jahmyr’s Rushing Yards.
Drake Maye, QB, UNC at Duke – o307.5 Pass (FD)
Maye has been carving up defenses since taking over from NFL DC Sam Howell, throwing for over 300 yards in four of five games this year with a scorching 9.9 YPA. UNC’s fast pace (24th) and suspect defense has been a boon to Maye’s passing numbers, as the Tarheels field the 114th overall defense in the nation so far. Duke = 1.1% Pass Down Sack Rate – 35th in defensive yards allowed. Defensively, Duke ranks 78th against the pass, but 23rd against the rush, which means the Tarheels should probably get more from their air attack than their ground assault. The Demon Deacons are really limping in the competition with key injuries on both sides of the ball, which is a problem for a passing rush that ranks second to last with a 1.1% sack rate. With UNC sporting the second-best passing offense in the nation and ranking 4th in FBS in explosiveness, Maye and company are simply going to be too much for an overmatched Duke defense to handle. FanDuel hooks the lowest line over 307.5 meters overshoot.
Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas vs. Iowa State – Over 247.5 assists (FD)
These are two teams headed in diametrically opposite directions. Texas is riding high with superstar QB Quinn Ewers back in the saddle and fresh off a 49-0 destruction of Oklahoma last weekend. Texas’ 9th-ranked offense is thriving, posting top 10 marks in hit rate (53%), points per drive (3.5) and explosiveness. Their defense is also light years ahead of last year’s iteration, ranking 11th in yards per play (4.5), 9th in yards per pass (37%) and 29th in explosive suppression. Iowa State is coming off three straight losses to Baylor (31-24), Kansas (14-11) and Kansas State (10-9), the latter two being insurmountable stone fights with the Cyclones averaging 294 yards and 10 points per game in scoreless affairs. Their defense does a good job of suppressing big plays but is better against rushing, ranking 56th in passing yards (7.0) and 57th in passing completion rate of 41%. Texas also has much better rookies, ranking 7th in 247Sports’ overall player rating, while Iowa State features only the 54th most talented roster in the nation. HC Matt Campbell has been able to mask their talent shortcomings when he had an experienced squad for the past two seasons, but with a relatively young squad, the ISU is going to be overwhelmed by this powerful attack from Texas at home in front of a crowd noisy in Austin. I think Ewers continues his ascent and cruises over 247.5 yards.